All large energy consumers face the same basic risk management issue; extreme price volatility that can batter budgets and even threaten earnings targets. An astoundingly high number of energy managers deal with volatility by simply running a bid process periodically that requests a fixed price for their full volumetric requirements. While this transactional approach might assure that they see the best price on a given day, it completely ignores the fact that they may have picked a high-priced day to buy all their energy, and that risk presents itself in both detrimental and beneficial forms.
At Calpine Energy Solutions, we work primarily with clients who want to transform their approach to energy risk management by helping them construct and follow a disciplined process. We believe that energy risk management must begin with the quantification of risk in both its detrimental and beneficial forms. Only then can we have clear-eyed discussions that help clients define risk tolerance levels and establish policies that will drive results while also honoring established risk boundaries.
Our PowerFolio3D™ suite of web-based analytical tools enables us to run simulations that measure the expected impacts of various risk mitigation actions to a client’s cost, risk and carbon objectives. Having the ability to test strategies shines light on where risks reside which enables us to more precisely constrain detrimental risks and preserve beneficial risks consistent with each client’s tolerance level. To learn more about our approach to risk management please explore the stages of the process wheel below.
Click on the circle to get more information about each process.
Our PowerFolio3D™ Risk Management Process begins with a quantification of the existing financial exposure, in terms of both the detrimental and beneficial forms of risk. Our analytical tools provide industry-leading financial risk modeling to calculate a clear picture of market exposure. This initial exposure begins to frame strategy and execution planning and ultimately serves as a benchmark for performance of the program.
As we develop a strategy, we consider both organizational goals and constraints along with market fundamentals and outlook. This allows us to properly size our fixed price positions in exactly the months and hours where protection is most needed, while keeping our objectives and budget intact. Through the client portal we test drive every strategy before we buy, and we memorialize results for performance reporting.
Whether you're purchasing grid power, renewable power, environmental attributes, or compliance products like RPS or Capacity, the decision of what to buy is just the beginning. The most important step is how you integrate the purchase into the portfolio, and how you record, track, and manage it.
Ongoing portfolio risk management requires the monitoring of changes to the market outlook based on the dynamic state of technical and fundamental drivers, as well as regulatory and legislative events. Active analysis of these key factors, along with potential financial impact and proactive mitigation measures will ensure, once again, that organizational objectives and budgets remain intact.
Eligible clients can view their data on-line and utilize dynamic filters to see the exact data set they need. You'll know how your usage is settling versus expectation, how cost components of your energy spend are changing over time, what's happening with your budget forecast, what portion of your usage is committed to a fixed price - from the portfolio level down to each individual contract. The reports are available 24/7 to view, download, or export. (demo video can be found on the Data Management page)
By beginning the strategy development process with a full analysis of financial risk, we are able to benchmark that expectation and compare it to the actual results of the strategy on an annual basis. We can see the effects on expected budget from both the strategic management of the portfolio as well as the volumetric deviations. In the event that there have been changes to the organization (operations, goals, constraints, etc.) or the market fundamentals and outlook, this annual review serves as the basis for recalibrations to the strategy and or execution plan.
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